With just one full round of the NRL Telstra Premiership ahead of us, the race for spots in the top eight has well and truly heated up.
Penrith have clinched the minor Premiership… but other than that, every other position in the finals is still capable of facing some changes with spots in the top four and top eight still undecided heading into the final round.
Best and worst case finishes
Penrith Panthers (1st, 42 points)
- Best case: 1st
- Worst case: 1st
- Round 25 game: v Cowboys (A), Saturday, 7.35pm.
Penrith have wrapped up another minor premiership, and were presented with the JJ Giltinan Shield by NRL CEO Andrew Abdo at the conclusion of their Round 24 match. Coach Ivan Cleary may choose to rest a handful of players in Round 25 as they travel north to face the Cowboys in Townsville.
Cronulla Sharks (2nd, 36 points)
- Best case: 2nd
- Worst case: 3rd
- Round 25 game: v Knights (A), Sunday, 2.00pm.
With a straightforward win over the Bulldogs and the Cowboys going down to the Rabbitohs, the Sharks are now in the box seat to secure a home final in week one of the finals. Simply, if Cronulla beat Newcastle in the final round they will finish second. The only way the Sharks can fall to third is if they lose to the Knights and the Cowboys beat the Panthers in their final game of the regular season.
North Queensland Cowboys (3rd, 34 points)
- Best case: 2nd
- Worst case: 5th
- Round 25 game: v Panthers (H), Saturday, 7.35pm.
To finish second, the Cowboys will need to beat the Panthers in Round 25 and hope that the Knights can upset the Sharks in their final game, with the two results needing a 15-point differential swing in the Cowboys’ favour. If Todd Payten’s side do beat the undermanned Panthers, then they will likely finish third — assuming the Sharks beat the Knights — or they could drop to fourth if they lose to Penrith and the Storm beat the Eels. While technically possible they could fall to fifth, it is highly unlikely given the drastic points differential they would need to overcome — meaning the Cowboys will likely finish either third or fourth.
Melbourne Storm (4th, 32 points)
- Best case: 3rd
- Worst case: 6th
- Round 25 game: v Eels (A), Thursday, 7.50pm.
After falling just short against the Roosters, the Storm find themselves needing to win in Round 25 in order to secure a top four spot. While technically possible they could fall to sixth if the Roosters beat the Rabbitohs and the Storm lose to the Eels (plus a 64-point differential swing), it is really just a shootout between Melbourne and Parramatta this week to see who finishes fourth and who finishes fifth. If the Storm do win, and the Cowboys lose to the Panthers, they will finish third.
Parramatta Eels (5th, 32 points)
- Best case: 3rd
- Worst case: 6th
- Round 25 game: v Storm (H), Thursday, 7.50pm.
Similar to the above, if Parramatta beat Melbourne in Round 25 they will finish fourth. If they can win by 100 and the Cowboys lose to the Panthers then they can finish third, but let’s file that under “highly unlikely” for now. Instead, the bigger concern for the blue and gold will be what happens if they can’t triumph over the Storm — potentially falling as far as sixth after sitting third earlier this year.
Sydney Roosters (6th, 30 points)
- Best case: 4th
- Worst case: 9th
- Round 25 game: v Rabbitohs (H), Friday, 7.55pm.
A big win over the Storm in Melbourne in Round 24 has set the Roosters up for a thrilling end to the regular season as they take on the Rabbitohs at the opening of the redesigned Allianz Stadium. A win would lock the Tricolours into sixth while a win coupled with an Eels loss to the Storm would see the Roosters move up the ladder and earn a home final in fifth position. A loss — depending on the margin — could potentially see them fall to seventh with the Rabbitohs needing to overcome a 41-point difference in for-and-against that is currently in place between the two.
South Sydney Rabbitohs (7th, 30 points)
- Best case: 4th
- Worst case: 9th
- Round 25 game: v Roosters (A), Friday, 7.55pm.
Needed to win against the Cowboys to lock themselves into the finals and they have seemingly done so despite the technical possibility of finishing in ninth. With a huge rivalry game against the Roosters on the schedule to end the regular season, Jason Demetriou’s side will know that a win will probably guarantee them a home Elimination Final the following week, while a loss will likely see them remain in seventh and head on the road to face either the Roosters or Eels in the finals.
Canberra Raiders (8th, 28 points)
- Best case: 6th
- Worst case: 9th
- Round 25 game: v Wests Tigers (A), Sunday, 4.05pm.
With Brisbane going down to Parramatta in heavy fashion and the Raiders piling on the points against the Knights, Ricky Stuart’s side now find themselves in a strong position to make the finals.. but the job isn’t done yet. A win over Wests Tigers in the final game of the regular season will secure eighth spot for the Raiders, while an upset win for the Dragons over the Broncos the day before will also likely do the same given Canberra now host a 43-point for-and-against advantage over Brisbane.
Brisbane Broncos (9th, 28 points)
- Best case: 6th
- Worst case: 9th
- Round 25 game: v Dragons (A), Saturday, 5.30pm.
A disastrous defeat to Parramatta leaves Brisbane on the outside of the eight now, looking in and needing results to go their way in order to make the finals. First things first: the Broncos need to beat the Dragons on Saturday afternoon in order to make themselves relevant on Sunday when the Green Machine visit Leichhardt Oval to face a Wests Tigers side who will be playing to avoid the wooden spoon.
Source: NRL.com
