We are in the peak of the southern hemisphere spring and dry season has come to an end. Wet season or the northwest monsoon has commenced with north westerlies well established across the country.
Seasonal change from spring to summer will occur on the 13th December and should see increase in the rainfall with heavier falls in the southern parts of the country.
Most climate models show a weak La Niña forecasted to be short lived. A weak atmospheric wave (MJO) is passing our region and will enhance rainfall over the next two (2) weeks.
Over the last 3-6 months consistently drier conditions were experienced over most parts of the country with 8 provinces impacted; New Ireland in critical drought condition, AROB, East New Britain, West New Britain, Manus, Jiwaka, Enga and Western Highlands on drought alert and Hela, West Sepik and Central on drought watch.
Seasonal Climate Outlook (Dec-February 2022)
The wet season rainfall for the next 3-6 months is expected to be below average and severe drought conditions are likely across the country by the return of the dry season in May 2023.
The Tropical cyclone season has also commenced and it is expected that average number of tropical cyclones (1-2) are expected to form within PNG area of responsibility.
Extended Outlook – Summary
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway. The IOD continues to exceed negative values since October 2022. A negative IOD event results in more wetter conditions, especially for the southern and eastern parts of PNG.
With the La Niña condition underway, below average rainfall is expected over the New Guinea Islands throughout the wet season and upon the return of the dry season, severe drought conditions could evolve in parts of the region.
PNG National Weather Service will continue to monitor and report any developments of severe weather within its areas of responsibility for the sake of our people. The general public is urged to heed and comply with the warnings issued by the PNG National Weather Service.