The Pacific is expecting the El Nino condition to worsen in the coming weeks meaning countries in the region like Papua New Guinea (PNG) can expect extreme drought leading to food security issues and other related issues.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through its National Weather Service announced on Thursday 11th June that the El Nino has developed in the tropical Pacific and issued an El Nino Advisory. 

El Nino, the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is predicted to intensify to a moderate or strong level this fall. Forecasters predict a 63% chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2.0°C in the Nino-monitored region of the Pacific. If this threshold is surpassed, NOAA considers the event a “very strong” El Nino.

For PNG, the National Government has taken steps to mitigate the impacts when the condition intensifies and hits hard the communities in provinces under El Nino watch. The Minister for Disaster and Emergency Dr. Billy Joseph announced this in the recent parliament sitting.

“The government remains committed to working collaboratively with all stakeholders to ensure that appropriate preparedness, mitigation, and response measures are implemented to safeguard lives and livelihoods of our people,” said Minister Joseph.

The government is assessing communities in the El Nino watch provinces in the country, so to come up with a proper plan to effectively coordinate with partners and stakeholders when the drought condition hits.

This is being conducted by the National ENSO Taskforce under the direction of the Chief Secretary to the Government and overseen by the National Security Authority.

Meantime, NOAA has declared an El Nino has formed when temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are 0.5°C above average for several consecutive months.

Additionally, NOAA monitors the atmosphere above this region of the Pacific, looking for a pattern called the Walker Circulation, a massive east-to-west air flow driven by the temperature and pressure differences between the warm western and cool eastern oceans. 

When the Walker Circulation breaks down and warmer water shifts east toward South America, El Nino is declared.