The economy of Papua New Guinea (PNG) is expecting some favourable growth this year and next year due to positive outlook driven by improvements in the mining sector.
Published in the recent edition of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) flagship economic publication- the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2024, the report stated that despite economic growth slowing down to 2.0% in 2023 due to decreased production in the resource sector, the country’s economy is set to grow by 3.3% in 2024 due to resumption of production at the Porgera gold mine in Enga province.
Meantime, the medium-term outlook for PNG’s economy remains positive, with growth in 2025 forecast to further expand to 4.6%.
However, ADB Country Director for PNG, Said Zaidansyah, stated that there are looming challenges nonetheless.
“Foreign exchange restrictions and frequent power disruptions continue to dampen activity in the rest of the economy and the fallout from civil unrest in January also clouds the outlook.”
The ADB report stated that the reforms to improve the power sector’s financial sustainability and generation infrastructure, including increased use of renewable energy and private sector investment, are needed to help address power supply constraints on growth. ADB’s financing plan will include support to address this.
The report also stated that inflation is expected to rise from 2.3% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024 to then pick up even further to 4.8% in 2025, largely because of continued exchange rate depreciation and impact of the recent civil unrest, which saw the increase in the costs for many consumer goods.
However, the ADB is hopeful that this won’t further damper things, because the foreign exchange restrictions and the business constraint for PNG, could ease under a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) led program, which is to be established this year.
Also, the reopening of the Porgera gold mine should also create additional operation-related spending on goods and services and employment, as well as provide foreign exchange inflows.
Nevertheless, the ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty.
Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members with 49 from the region, and the ADB is one of PNG’s largest sources of official development assistance, with a portfolio of about $1.38 billion.