In a newly released paper, Dr. Tomas Wangi, a Senior Research Fellow at the National Research Institute, has raised significant concerns regarding the reliability of Papua New Guinea’s recent inflation figures.
Dr. Wangi’s paper, made public today, delves into whether these figures accurately represent the fluctuations in the prices of goods and services across the country.
According to Dr. Wangi, the National Statistical Office (NSO) is tasked with the responsibility of gathering and disseminating official statistics, which includes vital economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Balance of Payments (BOP).
Of particular importance, the CPI serves as a key measure of inflation by monitoring changes in the prices of goods and services consumed by urban households.
Dr. Wangi’s analysis reveals significant doubts about the accuracy of Papua New Guinea’s inflation data, citing recent figures that have unexpectedly shown low inflation rates.
He points to outdated weighting methods and sampling procedures as potential factors that may be distorting the reliability of the CPI.
One key concern highlighted by Dr. Wangi is the age of the survey used to determine the fourth CPI base year for Papua New Guinea, conducted almost 14 years ago.
Since then, expenditure patterns among urban households may have evolved, potentially impacting the CPI calculation.
Additionally, sampling errors and reporting inaccuracies further compound the challenge of obtaining accurate inflation data.
To address these issues, Dr. Wangi proposes several recommendations.
He suggests that the NSO conducts a new Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) to update the CPI base year and improve sampling techniques.
Furthermore, Dr. Wangi emphasizes the importance of providing additional training to field officers involved in data collection efforts.
By implementing these measures, Dr. Wangi believes that Papua New Guinea can enhance the reliability of its inflation figures and gain a better understanding of the country’s economic landscape.
This, in turn, could lead to more informed policy decisions and strategies for addressing economic challenges.
His timely recommendation comes as NSO prepares for PNG’s 5th National Population Census which takes place later in the year using the 2021 theme: “Be counted! No one left behind”
According to the National Statistical Office, PNG, like many other countries, where the cost of a census is very high, censuses are conducted every 10 years – to date, PNG has conducted four (4) censuses since 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2011.
The 2021 census was not conducted as PNG was affected by COVID-19.